Another day. Another 250-plus total. Just yesterday we witnessed a world record chase. What is happening in the 17th edition of the IPL? Batters are dominating like never before, run-rates are soaring at an all-time high, record sixes are being smashed in every encounter and powerplay and death totals are hitting the roof. Amongst all this carnage, the question which emerges is – what is a safe total in the IPL now?
The Highest Run-Rate in a Season & The Highest Average Score Batting First
The average run-rate in 2024 is a staggering 9.67. What is even more astonishing is that the upward trend continues. The run-rate was 9.49 mid-season and has gone up substantially thereafter. The average run-rate in 2023 was 8.99 (previous highest).
The average score batting first in IPL 2024 is a whopping 184! The average score batting first in 2023 was 181.6 which was the previous highest in a season. Unlike last year when most of the teams were clustered together (except the Capitals) in terms of their average total batting first, the numbers this season have a high variance.
In fact, the standard deviation of 39.7 this season is the highest for any season. It was 30.6 last season. This suggests that while there have been a number of 220-plus totals in this edition, there have also been a fair share of the below-160 totals.
The Sunrisers are at the top of the pack with an average total of 235 and are followed by the Knight Riders at 221. The bottom cluster includes the Capitals (147), Titans (152) and Punjab Kings (155).
The Highest Average Score in Successful Chases
The average score batting second in 2024 is 177.7, up by 10 runs from the corresponding score in cases (of 167) in 2023. This suggests that there is significantly bigger jump in the average score batting second in comparison to the average score batting first in the last one year.
The average score in successful chases this season is as high as 176.3 – the highest it has ever been in any edition. It is up a couple of runs from the previous highest which was in the last edition in 2023 (174.3). It was 168.1 in 2022.
Record 200+ Chases Projected
There have already been eight 250-plus totals this season in the IPL. Two of these have come in chases. There were only two 250-plus totals in the first 16 editions of the tournament – one each in 2013 and 2023! So, what we are witnessing in IPL 2024 is truly unprecedented. Flat tracks, bigger bats and a fearless approach and teams finally maximizing the Impact Player rule – they have all contributed to this stunning assault by the batters on the bowlers this season.
There were just one 200-plus chase in the inaugural season in 2008. None in 2009. Two in 2010. None in 2011. One in 2012. None in 2013. Three in 2014. None in 2015 and 2016. One in 2017. Two in 2018 and 2019. One in 2020 and 2021. Two in 2022. 2023 was the breakthrough season and witnessed as many as eight 200-plus chases. There have already been four successful 200-plus chases this season including one above 250 (the highest chase in any T20 encounter)! Will 2024 break the record for the previous season?
Another trend which backs our hypothesis is the domination of the team batting second from the second quarter of the tournament.
Chasing – the Mantra of Success Again
The teams batting first enjoyed more success in the first quarter of the tournament. The team setting a target won 10 of the first 16 matches. Even the six successful chases did not see a maximum target of above 185. Then came Match 17 – Punjab Kings overcame the Gujarat Titans overhauling the 200-run target off the penultimate delivery with three wickets in hand.
Suddenly, the trend reversed dramatically! Since then, the team chasing has won 16 of the 26 matches with seven 180-plus chases including four above 200! The world record was just the icing on the cake! There have been two other 200-plus targets where the team batting second fell just short. RCB lost by a solitary run in their 222-run chase against KKR while the Capitals defeated the Titans by four runs defending 224.
Percentage of 200-plus totals batting second
There were 37 200-plus totals last season. 13 of these (35%) came batting second. There have already been 25 200-plus totals this season with 10 of these (40%) in chases. This is another indicator that the team batting second is not getting overawed by the scoreboard-pressure even as record totals are being set and reset this year! The fear factor of the soaring required run-rate is getting diminished. Four of the five highest team totals batting second have come this season.
South Africa chased down a mammoth 435-run target against Australia at the Wanderers in 2006 to leave the cricketing fraternity stunned. It was the highest chase in ODI history and a watershed moment in the format. Fast forward 18 years. Punjab Kings gun down 262 to create history against the Knight Riders at the Eden Gardens. It is the highest chase ever not only in the IPL but in T20 cricket and another watershed moment in cricket.
Is there a safe total anymore?
